Tuesday, May 6th is the big day! ...well, the next big day, I suppose.
As we draw closer to the Convention it seems that history conspires to repeat itself.
Can we have another '68? I hope not, but who knows.
The "Old Timers" point out that political climate is completely different now. The '68 Convention saw issues of Civil Rights, Vietnam, the Counterculture and the assassinations of both Bobby Kennedy and MLK Jr., all come slamming together in one perfect storm. Hubert Humphrey walked away with the nomination even though he did not participate in any Primaries - he did, however, control enough delegates to win the nomination.
So what happened? The Democratic Party revamped their process to focus less on delegates and more on Primaries.

A different storm is brewing now, one that if not diffused will likely leave the Party in shambles, though I do not really expect any violence. Right now we have a split Party, we are at war, we are in an economic downturn and at the same time have rising commodity prices (which make the Middle Class feel poor and the poor feel completely destitute). We have some racial tension (though I think this is a bigger factor for the previous generations and not as much for GenX forward), we have two opposing sets of supporters becoming increasingly polarized and we have a Party head that prefers watching to leading (see Florida and Michigan).


So how does this shake out?
Here's what my crystal ball says...though it could be wrong:

Hillary comes within striking distance of the popular vote on Tuesday.
Obama remains ahead in delegate and Super Delegate counts.
As June approaches the tone of the campaign becomes more savage.
Neither candidate will feel they should throw in the towel.
Obama will make the Delegate case.
Hillary will make the Popular Vote and Battleground case - she will also argue that Florida and Michigan cannot be ignored (see it here).
Howard Dean will only manage by crisis and even then it will be after it's too late.
Dean will try to force a candidate to bow out and alienate one side of the party.

Yeah, it's pretty grim. Maybe Obama will completely blow Hillary away on Tuesday and put this whole thing to bed early. I doubt it. It's like we have this inherent need for a spectacle, a real train wreck complete with bodies strewn across four counties. Every time a candidate pulls ahead a bit, the other side has something disasterouos occur. Reverend Wright, either taking crazy pills or now in league with the Clintons, gives the most disasterous speech possible for the Obama campaign. Couldn't he just stay quiet? Wait to turn the crazy up until after November? Nah, that would make too much sense.
Lest you think I am not an equal opportunity hater, Bill Clinton makes similar, insane pronouncements "I never said that!" which sounds as believable as "I did not have sexual relations with that woman!"
How is Bill unaware that the NPR interview was taped? Does he think we're idiots? Did the Obama camp kidnap the real Bill Clinton and replace him with this nutjob? Where's the old Bill? In all likelihood this nutjob probably is the real Bill Clinton - I guess he's just not as smooth outside of a Chief Executive Office.

Whatever happens, this will be a wild ride.